A 50w should do fine but will stay on more than a higher rated one. I find that higher rated ones give a more stable temp in tank. Not like a higher rated heater will cook the fish or anything, they're all temp controled..
I'd go with the 100w. it aalso depends on how much you're going to raise the tank temp above the room it's in. if it'll be more than 10 degree F I'd go even higher than 100w.
I'd go with two 50 watts, It is a little more than needed, but IME two is always better than one, and if one craps out the other will be big enough to prevent dissaster.